What the 2026 Bug Barometer Is—and Isn’t—Telling Us
Twice a year, NPMA’s board-certified entomologists look at recent weather, longer-range temperature and rainfall outlooks, drought conditions, and pest biology to develop the Bug Barometer®. Think of it as a weather forecast for pests: it is grounded in science and useful for planning, but it cannot tell us exactly what will happen in every neighborhood or at every home.
For fall and winter 2026, the broader takeaway is that warmer fall conditions could give pests more time to remain active before cooler weather slows many outdoor species. Weather is only one part of the picture, though. Food, water, shelter, pest species, and conditions around each property also matter.
Here is where the Northern California context matters. NPMA groups California with Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, and Colorado into a single Intermountain and Southwest region. In that region, experts say heavier rainfall could prompt some spiders and scorpions to seek drier locations, while continued warmth and moisture may support increased mosquito activity.
That does not mean every part of Northern California is expected to have a wetter fall. NOAA’s September–November outlook leans toward above-normal seasonal temperatures across much of the West, including Northern California, but it does not show the same clear wetter-than-normal signal for our area. Rainfall could vary considerably between the Sacramento Valley, the North State, the foothills, the mountains, and the coast.
And “warmer than normal” does not mean fall will stop feeling like fall. In Sacramento, for example, the normal daily high drops from about 89°F in September to 79°F in October and 65°F in November. This year’s outlook suggests that the seasonal average could end up warmer than the historical baseline, not that every day will be hot or that cooler spells will not occur.
What a Warmer Fall Might Change—and What It Won’t
Spiders and scorpions seeking sheltered areas and mosquitoes lingering through fall are not entirely new behaviors. The 2026 forecast suggests that heavier rainfall could affect where some spiders and scorpions seek shelter, while continued warmth and moisture could keep mosquitoes active later.
Spiders—and, in some areas, scorpions—may seek sheltered places. Spiders can appear indoors during seasonal transitions even without rain. If heavier rain occurs locally, saturated soil or flooded hiding places could temporarily increase movement by certain spiders and scorpions. Some may enter garages, crawl spaces, storage areas, or homes through existing openings. Because NPMA’s prediction covers a broad six-state region, it does not mean scorpion activity will increase throughout Northern California.
Mosquito activity may remain noticeable later into fall. Mosquitoes can be active beyond summer in parts of Northern California, although activity generally decreases as conditions cool. If warm days and mild evenings persist—especially where standing water is available—that seasonal slowdown could happen later, leaving mosquitoes noticeable in yards longer than homeowners expect.
The bottom line: these are familiar pest patterns, not unusual new threats. This year’s forecast suggests that the transition from summer activity to cooler-season behavior may be less predictable—and, for some pests, a little more drawn out.
These are not the only pests Northern California homeowners may encounter this fall; they are simply the ones NPMA specifically highlights in its regional outlook.
A Few Things You Can Do Right Now
These prevention tips draw on the Bug Barometer guidance cited above and the University of California Statewide Integrated Pest Management Program’s home and landscape resources:
- Check for accessible gaps and cracks around the exterior, including worn door sweeps, damaged screens, and openings around pipes or vents.
- Continue emptying standing water after summer. Rainfall and irrigation can refill gutters, flowerpot saucers, toys, buckets, and other containers where mosquitoes may develop.
- Trim vegetation away from the house where practical, and reduce leaf litter, stacked materials, and unnecessary clutter that may provide sheltered hiding places.
- Repair plumbing leaks and address persistent moisture or drainage concerns around the home.
- Use care when moving firewood, boxes, or materials stored in garages, sheds, or other sheltered areas where spiders or scorpions could hide.
These steps may make a property less attractive or accessible to pests. If spiders, scorpions, or mosquitoes remain a concern—or you want preventive protection in place before activity becomes noticeable—professional pest control may help.
Professional Pest Control Is Also About Prevention
Professional pest control is not only for problems that have already gotten out of hand. It can also make sense when you want to prepare for seasonal pest pressure, reduce the chance of pests getting established, or add ongoing protection around your home.
Big Time Pest Control can help whether you are dealing with repeat activity or simply trying to stay ahead of the season. Our team will consider what you have been noticing, the conditions around your property, and the level of protection you want before recommending an appropriate service.
Big Time is an NPMA member and holds QualityPro accreditation and GreenPro service certification. QualityPro establishes standards for company operations, employee education, environmental stewardship, and consumer relations, while GreenPro focuses on standards for integrated pest management services.
Choosing the Right Pest Control Plan
Big Time’s residential pest control plans provide scheduled preventive service for covered household pests, but the plans are not identical:
- Guardian includes four scheduled preventive services per year, treatment for covered common household pests such as ants, scorpions, and spiders, interior service as needed, exterior rodent stations, web removal, and covered-pest re-treatment under the plan’s Pest-Free Guarantee.
- Guardian Plus includes the Guardian features and adds subterranean termite monitoring and a full home inspection every three years, including a check for wood-destroying organisms.
- Guardian Pro adds subterranean termite protection, a termite re-treatment warranty, and a full home inspection every three years, including a check for wood-destroying organisms.
Coverage, guarantees, and recommended services remain subject to the selected program’s terms and the conditions found at the property.
Mosquito control is a separate, year-round service. Big Time’s program begins with a property inspection and initial treatment. Ongoing quarterly visits target mosquito resting and breeding areas, service mosquito traps, and treat appropriate standing-water sites. Because mosquitoes may travel from nearby properties, the program is designed to reduce activity rather than eliminate every mosquito.
Contact Big Time Pest Control Today
Fall 2026 may bring warmer-than-normal conditions to Northern California, and those conditions could extend activity for some pests. They will not affect every species—or every neighborhood—the same way.
If you have noticed recurring pest activity—or want preventive protection before seasonal pest pressures change—Big Time Pest Control serves homeowners throughout Sacramento, Chico, Anderson, Redding, and nearby communities. Request a quote or call (530) 430-1384 for assistance.
Forecast note: Seasonal outlooks describe probabilities across broad regions. Actual conditions may change as weather patterns evolve and may differ by community, elevation, and property.
